Photo credit: Morio. Used under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
As another Formula One test concludes, now with just one remaining prior to the season's opening Grand Prix, predicting the championship becomes something of a game to fill the ever-decreasing time between the present and Melbourne's race.
Mercedes-powered cars, particularly those from the works AMG team, have been the strongest in F1's tests, and while teams can still improve, Mercedes' drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg appear to be early candidates for the World Drivers' Championship (WDC).
That honor will be awarded differently in 2014, though, with F1 giving double points in the Abu Dhabi season finale. The intention is to keep the championship alive for the final race by broadening the window of eligibility, hoping to prevent an early clinching.
The test results, though still only that, may have some worried about that. Hamilton, Rosberg, or any other driver could capitalize on the unreliability of Red Bull, or the lack of pace of Ferrari- and Renault-powered cars, going on a season-opening tear to build an insurmountable lead in the championship. The last time F1's technical regulations changed so drastically, 2009, saw the Brawn team, coincidentally now Mercedes' factory squad, dominate testing, accumulate large points in the early season, and clinch the title with a race to spare despite a downward turn in performance from mid-season onward.
Yet fears that the points battle won't be close are not the only concerns expressed in F1, as some fans worry that an "undeserving" champion could be crowned under the double points formula, and would prefer the dominant driver, whichever one that is, to clinch as it happens for the sake of fairness.
So, just what will double points do to 2014? Consider the past points battles, beginning with 2005, the year in which Ferrari dominance ended and the points championship became a centerpiece of F1, with five title fights going down to the last race since competition opened up in a way it had not for years prior.
The scenarios
In 2005, Fernando Alonso won the championship in the penultimate race. Under a double points system (note that points were awarded 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 at this point, and up through the 2009 season; the current 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 formula debuted in 2010), Alonso would not have clinched; Kimi Räikkönen was 19 points away, and thus mathematically eligible to win the title if and only if Alonso were to fail to score a single point, and Räikkönen were to win.
The following year, Alonso was again champion, but only after the entire season had been run. He and Michael Schumacher were each candidates in the final race, and a double points finale would not have changed that, with both still the only drivers who could possibly take the championship. Schumacher was 10 points behind Alonso; at the time, he needed to win with Alonso taking zero points. Under the double points system, Schumacher would have been afforded more opportunities to take the championship, including scenarios with Schumacher finishing anywhere from first to fourth.
Like the 2006 season, 2007 would see no change in eligible drivers with double points. Hamilton, Alonso, and Räikkönen play for the championship regardless of the system, with Alonso four points, and Räikkönen seven, from then-leading Hamilton. These gaps, close as they were, would not have been greatly impacted by double points. Alonso, for example, would have taken the title on a tie-breaker (wins) if he won and Hamilton finished third under the regular system; at double points, Alonso first with Hamilton second would have done it. For Räikkönen, a double points finale would still mean improbably beating both Alonso and Hamilton by enough to take the championship, as he did in the real 2007 season-closer.
2008 would add a spare candidate with double points. In addition to Hamilton and Felipe Massa, who battled for the championship (dramatically won by Hamilton) in actuality, Robert Kubica would have barely been eligible by virtue of being 19 points (the cutoff would have been 20) from Hamilton's first place. Kubica's title hopes required him to do more than just tie, as he only had one win heading into the championship race. The then-BMW-Sauber driver would have needed to take victory with Hamilton failing to score, and with Massa finishing sixth or worse.
The aforementioned 2009 would an extended run for the title, as Button would not clinch before the final race. Sebastian Vettel, 15 points back, would have been eligible, winning the title if he could defeat Button, who had the "most wins" tiebreaker locked up. For Vettel, that meant victory in the race with Button seventh or worse, or second place with Button ninth or worse.
In 2010, with a revised points system as it was (meaning the cutoff would be 50), it would now ne Button's turn to be the newly eligible driver thanks to double points. Under the regular system, Alonso, Webber, Vettel, and Hamilton went into the season finale in a four-way battle; Button would have been fifth, 47 points away from Alonso and therefore only just in with a mathematical shot. Button's chance would not have been large, and he would not have been afforded the tiebreaker against any of the other four. He'd need to win the race, no matter what, and have Alonso tenth or worse. Webber would then need to be eighth or worse, while Vettel, the real 2010 champion, could not finish higher than sixth. Additionally, Hamilton would have to be classified fourth or lower.
The past three season, 2011-13, would see no change in contenders. Vettel would clinch in 2011 and 2013 regardless, and only Vettel and Alonso would be eligible in 2012, as they were originally in yet another of Vettel's championship years.
The impact
Four times since 2005 would an extra driver (and each time, only one) have been able to win the championship with a double points finale. Of the four, only two prevented early-clinching, the goal of double points, while the other two simply added a driver to an already-open championship fight.
Note that I do not speculate who would have won the championship in these seasons, as the approach to the Grands Prix themselves would change depending on circumstances; that is, a driver who was not previously eligible may manage the race differently, while a driver who had previously been racing as the clinched champion would almost certainly be less aggressive if there were still a title at risk.
Moreover, the intention of double points was not to necessarily change the outcome of the season, but simply to keep the suspense longer-lasting.
Nevertheless, the double points formula does have potential to change who actually wins it, as those eligible but not excessively close receive more chances; consider the hypothetical 2006, in which double points took Schumacher from one scenario to four.
Still, that championship would almost always be awarded to a driver who fans already would have accepted as champion under the single points formula. Only four times could a driver who would not have been eligible under single points take the championship, and of them, only Vettel in 2009 could have taken it without a clutch win (Vettel would have been able to clinch with a second place, as well as a first, depending on Button's performance). The other three seasons, including 2010, the only one using the current points system as the basis, required the newly-added driver to go through absolute heroics to take an improbable championship, something that yield merit, even if tainted in the minds of some by the way it was awarded.
In other words, the champions may have changed, but would have been from the same pool of drivers who already could have been champion, and therefore were already deemed worthy as candidates. Alternatively, a not-previously-eligible champion would have needed to do something of such magnitude it would justify being the title-winner.
Thus, the WDC itself is not likely to be impacted by this tweak. In no way is that an endorsement of it; it does not justify a change to argue that the change will have no impact, as the change was intended to, indeed, be a change, whether it was agreed or not that a change needed to take place.
Other points
While the focus has been on the championship winner, as this title was inherent in the reasoning for the adjustment, it must be noted that other positions in both championships, the WDC and the World Constructors' Championship (WCC), may change hands as a result of double points.
This becomes particularly interesting in the WCC, in which only the top ten teams receive a share of F1's monstrous television revenue. Tenth place is estimated to pay more than $40,000,000, while eleventh awards nothing at all. In recent years, Caterham and Marussia have been the teams concerned with tenth, in all cases scoring zero points each and receiving a tiebreaker on highest individual race finish.
Now, however, an opportunity does exist for one or both of these teams to score its first points, as reliability of the new cars has come into question, meaning enough retirements could give either the chance at a best-ever result should the mechanical failures not plague them.
With a double points finale, one could out-class the other all season, even scoring a single point, yet the consistently worse team could get the same tenth place at Abu Dhabi, receive two points, and have the rule be a $40,000,000 difference maker.
This, of course, is not necessarily probable, and not necessarily a change, either. As it stands, the $40,000,000 is usually paid to the team whose driver survived a race of higher attrition than the other team's, and the perceived-as-worse team has, at times, taken tenth in the WCC because of it.
The increments from tenth upward are not as severe, though millions, even relative millions to teams with budgets in the hundreds of them, still matter. That money could be distributed based on double points, altering budgets for the following season and potentially making a difference to decisions as visible as how much funding the drivers must be bring to the team.
Taking a guess
Even so, a double points finale has changed little, and should play, at most, a minor role in reshaping F1 when compared to the new technical regulations and harder compound tires for 2014.
If you wanted nothing to change, your opposition can be reduced, because the probability of a true fluke for the championship is extremely low (if not impossible), and the battles at the very rear, where the financial stakes are arguably the highest, are determined by one-off results as they are.
If you did want a change, your celebration, too, can be reduced. One was made on paper, but the historical seasons of F1 give little reason to believe the intended purpose of extending the points fight will occur with regularity, or have much power to transform the season. Only if multiple drivers do go to the finale eligible will there be a difference, as every position gained relative to the other driver will be worth more, adding intensity.
True dominance, if it comes in 2014, and whether it comes from Mercedes or another constructor, will be rewarded regardless, as it would have been for Vettel and Red Bull in 2011 and 2013. Should parity increase after testing, then the battle amongst those we were prepared to honor as champions as it had always been will simply offer more entertainment.
That's why those who follow F1, from Internet forum users to Bernie Ecclestone himself, are sharing their guesses for 2014: it's easy to believe a double points finale will make a mockery of auto racing, and that Mercedes will dominate so severely that the races will appear uncontested, but there's as much pleasure in being wrong at this game than there is satisfaction in being right.
At present, all signs point to the former actually being a non-issue, with the new formula seeming harsher in its metaphorical testing form than it will in the reality of a racing season.
It remains to be seen if the same will happen to Mercedes.
Double Points: Analyzing the Impact